Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Adult Literacy Trends in Pakistan: A Pre-Post Comparative Time-Series Analysis (2017–2024)
Authors
Muhammad Wajid Munir1,2,3*, Adebusola Adenike Owokole3,4,5
1 Chaudhary Pervaiz Elahi Institute of Cardiology (CPEIC), Wazirabad, Punjab, Pakistan.
2 Sialkot Medical College, Sialkot, Punjab, Pakistan.
3 The Operating Room Global (TORG)
4 The Robotic Global Surgical Society (TROGSS)
5 University of Limerick (UL)
Corresponding Author: Muhammad Wajid Munir · [email protected]
Study Summary
Background
Pakistan entered the COVID-19 pandemic with substantial literacy inequalities. In 2019, national adult literacy was 62.35%, compared with 72.97% among males and 51.73% among females; rural literacy was 52.18% compared with 76.54% in urban areas.
Objective
To describe changes in adult literacy in Pakistan before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic using national and provincial secondary data from 2017 to 2024, with disaggregation by sex, residence, and province.
Methods
This ecological secondary-data time-series analysis used data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement Survey, UNESCO Institute for Statistics, and Ministry of Federal Education and Professional Training. Trends were examined descriptively across pre-pandemic (2017–2019), pandemic (2020–2021), and recovery (2022–2024) phases.
Results
National adult literacy declined from 62.35% in 2019 to 59.94% in 2021, a reduction of 2.41 percentage points. By 2024, the national rate had increased to 64.51%, 2.16 percentage points above the 2019 baseline. Sindh had the largest provincial decline (−3.2 percentage points), while Balochistan remained the lowest-performing province in 2021 (40.7%).
Conclusion
Pakistan’s adult literacy trajectory showed a pandemic-period decline followed by national recovery by 2024. Recovery was uneven, and substantial gender, urban–rural, and provincial inequalities remained. The aggregate secondary-data design does not establish causality.
Keywords: COVID-19 · Literacy Trends · Pakistan · Pre-Post Comparative Analysis · Education Disruption · SDG 4
Literacy Change at a Glance
Gender, Residence & Provincial Patterns
Study Design & Analytical Approach
An ecological secondary-data time-series analysis using a retrospective, descriptive, pre-post comparative observational design at population level.
Pre-Pandemic
2017–2019
Pandemic
2020–2021
Recovery
2022–2024
2020 Gap
Interpolated because the routine PSLM round was not conducted.
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Article Details
Original Research
Ecological secondary-data time-series analysis.
Editorial Timeline
Received 10 August 2026
Accepted 16 September 2026
Available Online 21 September 2026
CC BY 4.0
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International licence.
Conflict & Funding
No conflict of interests. No funding received.
Volume 2 · Issue 3
September 2026 · ISSN 3105-3262
DOI: 10.64573/torgj2608002
Secondary-Data Determination
TORG-RF-2025-002; 20 March 2026. The publication states this was a TORG Global Research Fellowship governance determination, not an independent research ethics committee exemption.
Language & Formatting Support
Claude (Anthropic) was declared for language editing, formatting and structural reorganisation; research design, analysis, interpretation and conclusions remained the authors’ work.