The Operating Room Global Journal · Volume 2 · Issue 3 · September 2026
Original Research · Education · Population-Level Time-Series Analysis

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Adult Literacy Trends in Pakistan: A Pre-Post Comparative Time-Series Analysis (2017–2024)

Muhammad Wajid Munir1,2,3*, Adebusola Adenike Owokole3,4,5
JournalThe Operating Room Global Journal
Volume / IssueVolume 2 · Issue 3
Article TypeOriginal Research
Available Online21 September 2026
Article DOI10.64573/torgj2608002
Author & Affiliation

Authors

Muhammad Wajid Munir1,2,3*, Adebusola Adenike Owokole3,4,5

1 Chaudhary Pervaiz Elahi Institute of Cardiology (CPEIC), Wazirabad, Punjab, Pakistan.
2 Sialkot Medical College, Sialkot, Punjab, Pakistan.
3 The Operating Room Global (TORG)
4 The Robotic Global Surgical Society (TROGSS)
5 University of Limerick (UL)

Corresponding Author: Muhammad Wajid Munir · [email protected]

Abstract

Study Summary

Background

Pakistan entered the COVID-19 pandemic with substantial literacy inequalities. In 2019, national adult literacy was 62.35%, compared with 72.97% among males and 51.73% among females; rural literacy was 52.18% compared with 76.54% in urban areas.

Objective

To describe changes in adult literacy in Pakistan before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic using national and provincial secondary data from 2017 to 2024, with disaggregation by sex, residence, and province.

Methods

This ecological secondary-data time-series analysis used data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement Survey, UNESCO Institute for Statistics, and Ministry of Federal Education and Professional Training. Trends were examined descriptively across pre-pandemic (2017–2019), pandemic (2020–2021), and recovery (2022–2024) phases.

Results

National adult literacy declined from 62.35% in 2019 to 59.94% in 2021, a reduction of 2.41 percentage points. By 2024, the national rate had increased to 64.51%, 2.16 percentage points above the 2019 baseline. Sindh had the largest provincial decline (−3.2 percentage points), while Balochistan remained the lowest-performing province in 2021 (40.7%).

Conclusion

Pakistan’s adult literacy trajectory showed a pandemic-period decline followed by national recovery by 2024. Recovery was uneven, and substantial gender, urban–rural, and provincial inequalities remained. The aggregate secondary-data design does not establish causality.

Keywords: COVID-19 · Literacy Trends · Pakistan · Pre-Post Comparative Analysis · Education Disruption · SDG 4

National Trend

Literacy Change at a Glance

62.35%National literacy · 2019 baseline
59.94%National literacy · 2021
−2.41 ppObserved 2019→2021 change
64.51%National literacy · 2024
Interpretation: By 2024, national adult literacy was 2.16 percentage points above the 2019 baseline, but recovery remained uneven across demographic and geographic groups.
Disaggregated Findings

Gender, Residence & Provincial Patterns

−2.59 ppMale literacy · 2019→2021
−2.32 ppFemale literacy · 2019→2021
−2.89 ppUrban literacy · 2019→2021
−2.21 ppRural literacy · 2019→2021
Provincial variation: Sindh recorded the largest pandemic-period decline (−3.2 pp). Balochistan declined from 43.2% in 2019 to 40.7% in 2021 and recovered to 44.6% in 2024.
Methods

Study Design & Analytical Approach

An ecological secondary-data time-series analysis using a retrospective, descriptive, pre-post comparative observational design at population level.

Pre-Pandemic

2017–2019

Pandemic

2020–2021

Recovery

2022–2024

2020 Gap

Interpolated because the routine PSLM round was not conducted.

Analytical caution: Exploratory bootstrap intervals were used only to demonstrate instability of aggregate mean differences and were not interpreted as formal population-level inferential estimates. No causal effect of COVID-19 was inferred.
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Cite This Article

Citation Generator

Munir MW, Owokole AA. Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on adult literacy trends in Pakistan: A pre-post comparative time-series analysis (2017–2024). The Operating Room Global Journal (TORGJ). 2026 Sep 21;2(3). https://doi.org/10.64573/torgj2608002
Publication Information

Article Details

Article Type

Original Research

Ecological secondary-data time-series analysis.

Article History

Editorial Timeline

Received 10 August 2026
Accepted 16 September 2026
Available Online 21 September 2026

Corresponding Author

Muhammad Wajid Munir

[email protected]

Open Access

CC BY 4.0

Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International licence.

Declarations

Conflict & Funding

No conflict of interests. No funding received.

Journal Record

Volume 2 · Issue 3

September 2026 · ISSN 3105-3262
DOI: 10.64573/torgj2608002

Ethical Approval

Secondary-Data Determination

TORG-RF-2025-002; 20 March 2026. The publication states this was a TORG Global Research Fellowship governance determination, not an independent research ethics committee exemption.

AI Use Declaration

Language & Formatting Support

Claude (Anthropic) was declared for language editing, formatting and structural reorganisation; research design, analysis, interpretation and conclusions remained the authors’ work.